Swine Data Switcheroo....

BREAKING NEWS: THE CDC NOW SAYS THAT 4,000 OR MORE AMERICANS LIKELY HAVE DIED FROM SWINE FLU- ABOUT 4 TIMES THE ESTIMATE THEY'VE BEEN USING.

THE NEW HIGHER FIGURE INCLUDES DEATHS CAUSED BY COMPLICATIONS RELATED TO SWINE FLU, INCLUDING PNEUMONIA & BACTERIAL INFECTIONS.

OFFICIALS SAY THEY'RE WORKING ON AN EVEN MORE ACCURATE CALCULATION.

MANY MILLIONS HAVE CAUGHT THE PANDEMIC FLU VIRUS SINCE IT APPEARED IN APRIL

SEE! I KNEW THEIR DATA WAS WAY OFF.

COMFORTING THEY ARE WORKING ON AN EVEN MORE ACCURATE CALCULATION-- BECAUSE OF LATE, IT'S BEEN EVEN LESS ACCURATE!

When all else fails, manipulate the data.

I have been keeping an eye on the CDC weekly updates for H1N1 flu since the summer.

They have changed the format a few times, from daily & by state reporting, to nationwide, weekly updates of cumulative numbers from August 30th.

It seemed the volume of cases had increased so much, they were posting general numbers, which allowed for them to enter late arriving statistics into the overall numbers.

That being said, one would expect the cumulative number to either stay the same or increase.

After all we are in the peak season, and numbers of cases reported are on the rise.

I found myself sending an e mail inquiry to the CDC to clarify my observation.

I am referring specifically to the Weekly update page

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

The CDC said with revisions, the reported cumulative numbers could go down.

Perhaps that might be true by a slight margin, but the change we saw last week was dramatic .

These are cumulative data numbers from August 30th.

October 30th there were 25,985 Hospitalizations reported.

November 6th, there were 17,838 Hospitalizations reported.

The number from the cumulative data changed by -8147.

Cumulative data should either stay the same or increase. If there were errors, a slight decrease might be reported, but as the death toll increases, it seems very unlikely.

October 30th there were 2916 deaths reported.

November 6th, there were 672 deaths reported.

The number from the cumulative data changed by -2244.

Even if the new format with Pediatric specific death categories is added, 145 total (mortality), reported since APRIL 26th, the numbers do not add up.

My point is the CDC has clearly changed what data it is reporting, and is inconsistent.

Overall numbers since August, Pediatric numbers since April.

From one week to the next, 2244 less deaths in cumulative data???

I am just focusing on the one page of weekly updates & asking for consistency in the reporting.

I don't really know if they had just posted the numbers for 1 week.... and there were 672 Swine flu deaths in the US in one week. Previously, there had been over 500 in a week, so that would be consistent, but the CDC is playing with their reporting formats, and I'm quite certain the death toll has not cumulatively decreased by 2244.

I suspect they are trying to manipulate the data to make it look less alarming.

I just want the facts reported consistently!

Ok, I think the CDC has finally lost it. They just randomly change how they report data, without explanation. I guess they are trying to simplify the data & are publishing things like this: READ THE H1N1 NUMBERS ARE UP WAY UP, AND IT'S BAD.

Now they have a separate chart for pediatric statistics. They are slicing & dicing the data in ways that have me confused, I just hope THEY are not as confused as their reporting methods are!

U.S. Laboratory Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths from August 30 to October 31, 2009 Posted November 6, 2009, 12:30 PM ET Data reported to CDC by November 3, 2009, 12:00 AM ET

Cases Defined by	Hospitalizations	Deaths
Influenza Laboratory-Tests**	17,838	672
*Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations. *Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done. The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories**. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1. The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page. For state level information, refer to state health departments. International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization. **States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths.

U.S. Influenza-associated Pediatric Mortality Posted November 6, 2009 (Updated each Friday) Data reported to CDC by October 31, 2009

Date Reported	Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths	Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza A Subtype Unknown Pediatric Deaths	Laboratory-Confirmed SeasonalInfluenza	Total
This Week (Week 43, Oct. 25-31)	15	3	0	18
Since August 30, 2009	73	12	0	85
Cumulative since April 26, 2009	129	15	1	145
This table is based on data reported to CDC through the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. Influenza-associated deaths in children (persons less than 18 years) was added as nationally notifiable condition in 2004. For more information about influenza-associated pediatric mortality, see FluView.The good news is more people are hospitalized with this flu that dying from it. But it still remains deadly for high risk groups.

The good news is more people are hospitalized with this flu than dying from it. But it still remains deadly for high risk groups. Children under the age of 4 should be kept isolated as much as possible, to reduce exposure.

Keep checking with your local health department for regular seasonal flu & H1N1 vaccine availability.