Thursday, November 12, 2009

Swine Data Switcheroo....

BREAKING NEWS: THE CDC NOW SAYS THAT 4,000 OR MORE AMERICANS LIKELY HAVE DIED FROM SWINE FLU- ABOUT 4 TIMES THE ESTIMATE THEY'VE BEEN USING.
THE NEW HIGHER FIGURE INCLUDES DEATHS CAUSED BY COMPLICATIONS RELATED TO SWINE FLU, INCLUDING PNEUMONIA & BACTERIAL INFECTIONS.

OFFICIALS SAY THEY'RE WORKING ON AN EVEN MORE ACCURATE CALCULATION.
MANY MILLIONS HAVE CAUGHT THE PANDEMIC FLU VIRUS SINCE IT APPEARED IN APRIL

SEE! I KNEW THEIR DATA WAS WAY OFF.
COMFORTING THEY ARE WORKING ON AN EVEN MORE ACCURATE CALCULATION-- BECAUSE OF LATE, IT'S BEEN EVEN LESS ACCURATE!


When all else fails, manipulate the data.

I have been keeping an eye on the CDC weekly updates for H1N1 flu since the summer.
They have changed the format a few times, from daily & by state reporting, to nationwide, weekly updates of cumulative numbers from August 30th.

It seemed the volume of cases had increased so much, they were posting general numbers, which allowed for them to enter late arriving statistics into the overall numbers.
That being said, one would expect the cumulative number to either stay the same or increase.
After all we are in the peak season, and numbers of cases reported are on the rise.

I found myself sending an e mail inquiry to the CDC to clarify my observation.

I am referring specifically to the Weekly update page

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

The CDC said with revisions, the reported cumulative numbers could go down.
Perhaps that might be true by a slight margin, but the change we saw last week was dramatic .

These are cumulative data numbers from August 30th.

October 30th there were 25,985 Hospitalizations reported.
November 6th, there were 17,838 Hospitalizations reported.

The number from the cumulative data changed by -8147.

Cumulative data should either stay the same or increase. If there were errors, a slight decrease might be reported, but as the death toll increases, it seems very unlikely.

October 30th there were 2916 deaths reported.
November 6th, there were 672 deaths reported.

The number from the cumulative data changed by -2244.

Even if the new format with Pediatric specific death categories is added, 145 total (mortality), reported since APRIL 26th, the numbers do not add up.

My point is the CDC has clearly changed what data it is reporting, and is inconsistent.

Overall numbers since August, Pediatric numbers since April.

From one week to the next, 2244 less deaths in cumulative data???

I am just focusing on the one page of weekly updates & asking for consistency in the reporting.

I don't really know if they had just posted the numbers for 1 week.... and there were 672 Swine flu deaths in the US in one week. Previously, there had been over 500 in a week, so that would be consistent, but the CDC is playing with their reporting formats, and I'm quite certain the death toll has not cumulatively decreased by 2244.

I suspect they are trying to manipulate the data to make it look less alarming.

I just want the facts reported consistently!

Ok, I think the CDC has finally lost it. They just randomly change how they report data, without explanation. I guess they are trying to simplify the data & are publishing things like this: READ THE H1N1 NUMBERS ARE UP WAY UP, AND IT'S BAD.

Now they have a separate chart for pediatric statistics. They are slicing & dicing the data in ways that have me confused, I just hope THEY are not as confused as their reporting methods are!

U.S. Laboratory Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths from August 30 to October 31, 2009 Posted November 6, 2009, 12:30 PM ET Data reported to CDC by November 3, 2009, 12:00 AM ET
Cases Defined by
Hospitalizations
Deaths
Influenza Laboratory-Tests**17,838672

*Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations.

*Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done.

The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories**. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009.

CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1.

The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page.

For state level information, refer to state health departments.

International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health OrganizationExternal Web Site IconExternal Web Site Icon.

**States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths.

U.S. Influenza-associated Pediatric Mortality Posted November 6, 2009 (Updated each Friday) Data reported to CDC by October 31, 2009
Date Reported
Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths
Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza A Subtype Unknown Pediatric Deaths
Laboratory-Confirmed SeasonalInfluenza
Total
This Week (Week 43, Oct. 25-31)153018
Since August 30, 20097312085
Cumulative since April 26, 2009129151145

This table is based on data reported to CDC through the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. Influenza-associated deaths in children (persons less than 18 years) was added as nationally notifiable condition in 2004.

For more information about influenza-associated pediatric mortality, see FluView.The good news is more people are hospitalized with this flu that dying from it. But it still remains deadly for high risk groups.


The good news is more people are hospitalized with this flu than dying from it. But it still remains deadly for high risk groups. Children under the age of 4 should be kept isolated as much as possible, to reduce exposure.
Keep checking with your local health department for regular seasonal flu & H1N1 vaccine availability.


Wednesday, November 11, 2009

8 year peace vigil


Check this out! In little ol' Corvallis Oregon, just a few towns away from where I live.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Military Madness


I've not addressed the Ft. Hood tragedy because it is such a raw nerve issue for me. If you have read this blog at all, you would know exactly where I stand. I oppose war to the core of my being because I truly believe it solves nothing.
All those slogans come to mind~

War is terrorism with a bigger budget.

There was never a good war or a bad peace.

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

What a deep mess we are lost in. Two wars of choice that have equated to nothing more than Quagmire Accomplished.

I wonder if the original intent of these wars, never was to be won, just to get embedded in the region & to stay there?
I think it is a horrific experience, as one soldier put it,
"Seeing things a person should never see".

To think, Soldiers are required to return again & again for repeat tours of duty, to the front lines of the wars. Many of the suicides and times that pushed soldiers over the edge, was the notice of deployment.
We have no idea of the stench, and soul shattering experience a tour of duty is.
I can barely stand to watch the suffering scenes that make it to the news- and those are edited.

So it is no wonder Soldiers snap- they are pushed beyond their limits. They are required to take leave of their humanity. They spend months & years in heightened alert, witnessing the worst of humanity, and are left to try to figure out how to resume a "normal" life after living through hell.

So I have compassion for them all. For the innocents who were shot, killed & injured. Their lives cut short in a needless and random act of violence.
I also have compassion for the soldier gunman who lost it.
He must have had a tormented life, to wind up finding so little hope, that he went on this dangerous killing spree.
How very sad that a person charged with helping Soldiers deal with PTSD, winds up having an extreme case of it himself.

I saw some blurb that Congress will do hearings to investigate if he was a radical Muslim/Islamic. That will certainly be more divisive and inflammatory than looking at the real problem of PTSD, and the stress of military life.
For comparison, did they investigate Timothy McVey's Christianity after he blew up the Federal Building in Oklahoma City? No they did not.

Why don't they investigate why they keep spending billions for endless wars that puts people in a state of fatal hopelessness? Something is seriously wrong when suicide is a better choice than deployment, for so many soldiers.

Of the war slogans, my favorite is:

What if they had a war & nobody came?

Because really, if all the soldiers laid down their arms and refused to fight these wars, they could not have the wars.

In fact, the people who started these wars have moved on into posh mansions of retirement, while the wars they started preemptively, by choice, illegally & immorally, rage on.

Because really now, all the War planners and mongers are never the ones doing the fighting and dying, are they? The Government uses soldiers as the pawns in their sick power games, and resource grabs. Just like they say history repeats itself, the wars we are in right now are very much so like the Vietnam war..... and for 8 long years we listened to Bush tell us Victory is at hand, and the insurgents are in their last throes. One of the most decorated soldiers- Marine Smedley Butler said "War is a Racket".

While Congress roars about having to spend money on something so frivolous as healthcare, another $681 billion dollars was approved for next year's war budget, without any debate I know of.

What a messed up society we have that fights tooth & nail while taking bribe money, to deny the people of this country a chance to have better access and rules to reform health care, while war money is never questioned.

I extend my deep and sincere sympathy for all those who have suffered this loss, and the agony that war brings. May their souls rest in peace.

May this inspire us to demand a stop to it all.





American Military Casualties in Iraq
Date
Total
In Combat
American Deaths
Since war began (3/19/03):43623476
Since "Mission Accomplished" (5/1/03) (the list)
4223
3369
Since Capture of Saddam (12/13/03):38993171
Since Handover (6/29/04):35032844
Since Obama Inauguration (1/20/09):13472
American WoundedOfficialEstimated
Total Wounded:31557Over 100000
Latest Fatality Nov. 8, 2009
Page last updated 11/9/09 11:23 am EDT

U.S. Wounded